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I keep dreaming about provider collapse

General Discussion by GeorgeNmp 6 replies 439 views
GeorgeNmp

Member OP

AS64512

5 #1

I prepaid three years with CloudCone in March. Now I wake up at 3am checking Hostinger's status page (same parent company, different brand). This is irrational. I know the IRR entries, I know the RPKI ROAs, I know their upstream is Tier-1 with standard 30-day termination clauses. The expected value calculation still favors prepayment: $36/yr versus $7/mo saves $48 over three years. If they fail after month 18, I break even against monthly. If they fail after month 24, I am ahead.

Yet I dream about their ASN disappearing from the global table. About IRR objects vanishing. About the RPKI invalid alarm I will not see because I am asleep.

What do others actually do for mitigation? Not theory. Practice.

iBGP, eBGP, don't care, just peer
pablo

Member

#2

I feel you wey same with my GreenCloudVPS credit, got like $80 left and I keep checking if they still exist every morning? But honestly wey nobody knows, could be tomorrow could be 5 years!

My mitigation is I just dont prepay more than I can lose in casino wey same energy you know

declarative or death
herebungkus

Member

🌏 SEA represent

#3

I can understand this fear. I also prepay with Time4VPS for 2 years. My mitigation: slow-slow I backup to 2 location, one is my home NAS, one is friend server in Jakarta. If provider collapse, I can restore. Thank you for sharing your feeling, I thought only me have this dream wkwkwk.

But can I ask: is there way to check provider financial health? I am not able to find this information easily.

wrap it, ship it, pray it
PestWarsaw

Member

#4

In Poland we have saying: "no?"—cheap man pays twice. But mathematically you are right, GeorgeNmp. I make little script to calculate expected value. Assuming 15% annual collapse rate (high!), 3-year prepay still wins in 67% of scenarios. No?

I prepay only with provider who exists longer than 3 years. To backup is more important than to worry.

it works in my container
haroldgsm

Member

Grumpy Old Sysadmin

6 #5

Twenty years in this business. Back when prepaying meant a purchase order and a Net-30 invoice you could dispute. Kids these days hand over years of runway to a Stripe checkout and hope the WHOIS updates don't stop.

Mark my words: the expected value math only works if you weight all providers equally. You don't. You weight the cheap ones higher because that's why you're here. That weighting is wrong. The cheap ones fail faster. Your 15% rate is optimistic for the bottom tier. I've seen three dozen hosts vanish. The math breaks when the sample does.

IPv4, IRC, and irssi — fight me
DI

Member

4 #6

The real trick is never prepay more than 6 months unless its under €20 total

I got €14/y on Leaseweb and $9/y on InterServer, both 1yr only. Definitely sleep fine. A lot less than bgp's $108 exposure

If they die I lose lunch money

mediaaustin

Member

Deliverability Nerd

#7

> €14/y on Leaseweb

Same energy

SPF, DKIM, DMARC — holy trinity ✉️

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